Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.756422 14.400654 17.351365 20.866618 24.917936 29.418175 34.771735
2026-01-04 8.048411 11.433688 15.638715 21.150836 28.083704 36.409600 47.050020
2026-01-11 6.047355 9.691384 14.617171 21.555274 30.848162 42.627616 58.421304
2026-01-18 4.804128 8.559601 14.017329 22.173916 33.660618 48.843122 69.951565
2026-01-25 3.664359 7.267447 12.891589 21.785306 34.905414 52.915533 78.773468
2026-02-01 2.956478 6.470558 12.318959 22.032660 36.937156 58.048748 89.164626
2026-02-08 2.296405 5.580388 11.421552 21.614566 37.870644 61.603815 97.465382
2026-02-15 1.755620 4.760804 10.481673 20.965705 38.323110 64.403300 104.741456
2026-02-22 1.489771 4.424591 10.327197 21.569615 40.727599 70.148765 116.458082
2026-03-01 1.174071 3.883680 9.690899 21.242958 41.566821 73.530229 124.799700
2026-03-08 0.955372 3.502721 9.294732 21.279524 42.971594 77.806336 134.604135
2026-03-15 0.710958 2.963949 8.467676 20.398209 42.713355 79.412857 140.368656
2026-03-22 0.596560 2.765979 8.380013 21.000840 45.210498 85.751411 154.029353
2026-03-29 0.480027 2.513723 8.125083 21.248488 47.109766 91.249677 166.676915
2026-04-05 0.392625 2.316816 7.960132 21.651712 49.304853 97.322117 180.449244
2026-04-12 0.329069 2.175424 7.904428 22.272330 51.933639 104.223824 195.782834
2026-04-19 0.245318 1.896735 7.420241 21.882350 52.585253 107.757875 205.750918
2026-04-26 0.196116 1.738205 7.231489 22.130567 54.481784 113.509393 219.536747
2026-05-03 0.143056 1.512251 6.785709 21.711012 54.998846 116.834155 229.374672
2026-05-10 0.099259 1.287609 6.277065 21.059873 54.974698 119.163255 237.585489
2026-05-17 0.082125 1.220735 6.271114 21.665904 57.600584 126.386521 254.332901
2026-05-24 0.058303 1.068121 5.922974 21.338101 58.211573 129.924852 264.846670
2026-05-31 0.043326 0.964922 5.723322 21.374795 59.602044 134.951271 278.075624